There are lots of calculators for predicting how fast you should be able to run a race based on a workout or race (i.e. if you can run 6 miles in x, you should be able to run a marathon in x). Based on today's 6 mile run on the treadmill in 45.56 I am in 3.20 shape. I am ready for the marathon, no?
I don't trust these calculators as it assumes everyone is as gifted at running shorter distances as they are long ones. It's like the obesity charts which assume that all 6 feet, 175 pounds people are in the exact same shape. But at least these pace calculators give you something in which to gauge where you stand compared to a goal. For example, conventional wisdom is that you if you double your half marathon time and add 10 minutes, that should equal your marathon time. Break 1.40 for the half and voila, you have a 3.30 pace. This hasn't been a magic formula for me as I consistently run around 1.35 for the half and have broken 3.30 only once.
However, I do like the verification that my training is on the path to success. I am sure Mike is gaining confidence that he is getting faster and fitter running 2.5 miles hard in training (4 X 1000 meters) but it must be scary for him that he has no idea how this will translate to 10 times that distance. He's kind of like the Karate Kid sanding the floor with no clue how this will help him beat Johnny Lawrence.
Plus he now needs to genuflect about how I just ran 33 seconds faster than he did 13 days ago. It's gotta hurt his confidence.
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